摘要
利用大连市1914-2013年近100 a气温、降水资料,应用一元线性回归、小波分析、气候趋势系数等方法,对大连市气温、降水的季节-年际变化特征进行了研究,结果表明:近百年来,大连市气温的变化趋势与全国增暖的总趋势基本一致,年平均气温以0.12℃·(10a)-1的增温率在上升;以20世纪50年代中期为界,出现了两个冷暖交替期,1930年和1982年为两个增暖突变点,20世纪90年代之后为增暖趋势最显著期;伴随百年明显的增温趋势,大连市年降水量有相应微弱的减少趋势,递减率为4.57 mm·(10a)-1;降水量变化具有明显的周期性,同时又具有多时间尺度特征;大连市降水的季节变化明显,降水异常的幅度在雨季最大,尤其是7-8月,异常幅度的峰值所在月份也有较明显的年际变化.
The seasonal and annual variations of temperature and precipitation observed in Dalian from 1914 to 20 1 3 were analyzed by using the methods of one-dimensional linear regression,wavelet analysis and climate trend coefficient.The results show that the variation of temperature in Dalian city was generally consistent with that of the whole nation,with an annual average temperature rising rate of 0.12 ℃·（10a）-1 .There were two alternating periods between cold and warm demarcated in the middle of the 1950s,and two abruptly warming in 1930 and 1982.The most notable warming was after the 1990s.The last hundred years were a precipitation slightly decreasing period in Dalian city,with a rate of 4.57 mm （10a）-1 ,when temperature has obviously rising.The precipitation change had both significant periodicity and features of multiple time scale.Seasonal variation of precipitation in Dalian city was quite obvious,and the maximum amplitude of precipitation anomalies was in rainy seasons,especially in July and August.However,the month,when the peak precipitation took place,was shifted from year to year.
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第6期1490-1496,共7页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
辽宁省气象局项目"大连玉米农气服务指标研究"(201202-2)资助
关键词
气候变化
气温异常
降水异常
climatic change
temperature anomaly
precipitation anomaly
