摘要
利用北京市6个气象站平夏玉米种植生态区1960—2008年气温、降水和日照等资料，采用线性趋势法、线性回归法、M-K II法和Pettitt法对近49a北京平原地区夏玉米各生育期农业气候资源时间变化趋势及突变特征进行分析。结果表明，近49a北京市夏玉米全生育期≥10℃有效积温呈明显的增多趋势，不同生育期≥10℃有效积温均呈增长趋势；降水量及日照时数则表现出明显的下降趋势，各生育期内降水变化相对平稳，表现出波峰波谷的曲线波动；日照时数除抽雄至吐丝期外，其他生育期下降趋势均表现出极显著水平。突变检测表明，北京市夏玉米≥10℃有效积温在播种至拔节期、拔节至抽雄期、抽雄至吐丝期内M-K方法未检测出突变点，但在吐丝至成熟期内的时间序列上M—K方法和Pettitt方法检测认定1996年为一致的突变点；各生育期内日照时数时间序列变化突变点基本出现在20世纪80年代中期～90年代初期；全生育期及各生育期内降雨量均未检测出突变点，且夏玉米各生育期内降雨量时间序列变化相对平稳，不存在显著的突变点。
According to the temperature ,precipitation and sunlight in Pingxia Corn Planting Ecological Zone in Beijing from 1960 to 2008 ,linear tendency method,linear regression method, M-K II method and Pettitt method were used to analyze the time changing trends of agroclimatic resources and mutation characteristics of summer corn in the whole growth period in Beijing within 49 years. Results showed that ≥ 10℃ effective of summer corn ≥ 10℃ effective in the whole growth period of summer corn showed obvious increasing trend within the 49 years. ≥10℃ effective accumulative temperature in different growth periods showed growth trend. Precipitation and sunshine duration showed significant downward trend. Precipitation in each growth period was relatively stable ,showing vibration curve of peaks and valleys. Sunshine duration showed extremely significant level of downward trend, except the tasseling stage and spinning stage. Mutation detection showed that no mutational site was found by M-K method from sowing to jointing stage,from jointing stage to tasseling stage,from tasseling stage to spinning stage of summer corn ≥ 10 ℃ effective. However, M-K method and Pettitt method argued that from spinning stage to mature stage, 1996 was the mutation ;site in time series. In different growth stages ,mutation sites of time series of sunshine duration basically appeared from late 1980s to middle 1990s. No mutation sites were detected for precipitation in the whole growth period. Time series variation of precipitation in different growth periods of su mmer corn was relatively stable,with no significant mutation sites.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2016年第8期238-240,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
玉米
生育期
气候资源
变化特征
北京
Corn
Growth period
Climate resources
Change characteristics
Beijing
