摘要
本文基于双风险来源视角构建理论模型,揭示出收入、房价的不确定性及其相对谨慎系数共同引致了预防性储蓄。实证结果表明,城镇居民的预防性储蓄对房价的反应是敏感的,相应的谨慎系数达到了2.69,样本期内预防性储蓄与当期消费支出之比的平均数为4.5%,且在近几年呈现出递减趋势。最后,从构建稳定房价的长效机制、地区间差异化调控以及发挥相对谨慎系数的乘数作用等方面对政策启示进行了阐述。
This research has a profound significance to understand China＇s high saving rate. Based on the perspective of dual risks,this paper constructs a theoretical model that reveals the uncertainty of income,housing prices and their relative prudent coefficients contribute to the precautionary savings. Empirical analysis shows that the precautionary saving behavior of urban residents is indeed affected by house price fluctuation via a kind of interactive effect in indirect transmission,the relative prudence index is 2. 69 correspondingly. During the sample period,the average value of the precautionary saving in the proportion of the current expenditure is 4. 5%,and shows a deceasing trend recently. Finally,this paper puts forward some policy enlightenments in aspects of long term mechanism for stabilizing house price,differentiated regional regulation and playing multiplier effect of the relative prudent index.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第4期18-26,共9页
Statistical Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"我国居民消费结构影响因素的异质性分析"(10BTJ103)资助
关键词
预防性储蓄
相对谨慎系数
房价波动
Precautionary Saving
Relative Prudence Index
House Price Fluctuation
