摘要
2008年金融危机以来,政策因素在不稳定的经济环境中发挥着越来越重要的作用。战略性新兴产业在这一背景下推出,受政策相关的不确定性影响更为显著。基于政策不确定性概念框架,笔者实证检验了政策不确定性通过资本市场投资者情绪影响企业投资的微观作用机制。研究发现:政策不确定性增加了投资者的风险感知和模糊性厌恶水平,从而对其情绪产生负面影响;面临政策不确定性情景下的不完全信息集,同时为了降低政策不确定性带来的认知失调压力,决策者有动机从资本市场股价反应中推测信息;然而由于认知能力有限,决策者无法有效区分股价反应的理性部分和情绪部分,投资决策可能受到投资者非理性的情绪影响;投资者情绪成为政策不确定性影响企业投资的重要媒介。进一步研究发现,容易受投资者情绪影响的企业,政策不确定性通过投资者情绪对企业投资影响更显著。
The factor of policy plays an increasing important role under the more unstable economy environment. The strategic and emerging industry which is introduced in this background may be affected more by uncertainties related to policy. Based on the conceptual framework of policy uncertainty,the paper tests the micro mechanism of action empirically of how policy uncertainty affects the corporate investment through investor sentiment in capital market. It is found that policy uncertainty increases investor＇ s risk perception and ambiguity aversion,then it has a negative influence on their sentiment. Facing the incomplete information set under the circumstances of policy uncertainty,and for reducing the pressure of cognitive dissonance caused by it at the same time,decision maker is motivated to infer information from the reaction of stock prices in capital market. Nevertheless,because of their limited cognitive ability,decision maker can＇ t differentiate effectively the rational part and sentimental part in the price reaction,and then the investment decision may be affected by investor sentiment non-rationally. Investor sentiment is an important medium through which policy uncertainty affects corporate investment. Further,we find the effect is more significant in corporations which are susceptible to investor sentiment.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期60-69,共10页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"战略性新兴产业政策不确定性对企业投资行为影响研究"(项目编号:71402066)
"终极控制人
资本市场环境与企业风险承担"(项目编号:71472096)
"产业政策
投资者情绪与上市公司资本投向"(项目编号:71302042)
关键词
政策不确定性
投资者情绪
企业投资
Policy uncertainty
Investor sentiment
Corporate investment
