摘要
本文以环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)为理论基础,采用1997—2013年人均GDP与江西洎水河水体中总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)含量数据,构建了经济增长与环境质量之间的回归模型,分析了洎水河流域水体中TN、TP浓度随人均GDP增长的变化趋势及原因。结果表明,洎水河流域经济增长与氮磷排放之间的关系具有环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,即呈倒"N"型特征;但水体中TN、TP浓度随经济增长而减少或增加的转折点并未完全跨越EKC拐点。目前,洎水河流域总体处于调整和优化产业结构,加快产业转型升级促发展的新阶段,因此,应针对性地采取不同环境政策和经济发展政策,加大环保投入和加强执法力度等措施,来降低水质EKC拐点,实现流域经济和环境保护的协调发展。
Based on the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)and using the data of GDP per capita and the total nitrogen(TN) and total phosphorus(TP)in Jishui River Basin during the period of 1978 to 2008,this paper constructs a regression model of economic growth and environmental quality and analyzes the change trend and its reasons of TN and TP concentration with the growth of real GDP per capita in Jishui River Basin. The results show that the relationship between economic growth and emissions of TN and TP in Jishui River Basin accords with the EKC characteristics, and looks like an inverted 'N', but the turning point of the decrease or increase of TN and TP concentration in water with economic growth has not completely crossed the inflection point of EKC. Jishui River Basin, in general, is now at the new stage of adjusting and optimizing industrial structure, and speeding up the transformation and upgrading of industry,so for the purpose of realizing the harmonious development of both basin economy and environmental protection it is necessary to adopt different environmental and economic development policies on different occasions, and reduce the EKC turning point of water quality by increasing investment in environmental protection and strengthening law-enforcement.
出处
《鄱阳湖学刊》
2016年第2期111-117,128,共7页
Journal of Poyang Lake
基金
国家自然基金项目"基于景观格局演变的鄱阳湖典型流域水环境响应及其优化模型研究"(21367013)
"区域产业发展对生态环境的影响机理与调控政策研究:以鄱阳湖生态经济区为例"(71463020)
江西省高校人文社科项目"基于生态系统服务价值的南昌城市湿地水污染经济损益分析"(JC1420)
江西财经大学优秀青年学术人才支持计划基金资助项目(K00292025)的阶段性成果
