摘要
分析重庆市主城区机动车发展的现状特征,研究国内外各大城市机动车发展的规律及其影响因素。研究发现,影响机动车发展的关键因素是人均GDP或平均家庭收入,国内外各大城市的千人汽车拥有量随着人均GDP或平均家庭收入的增长符合S曲线增长规律。在此基础上,采用S曲线法进行重庆市主城区机动车拥有量预测研究,并提出相关政策建议。
Basically,the characteristics of growth of motorized vehicles within central Chongqing are analyzed by studying the history data. The growth patterns and the relevant factors of some other metropolitans in and out of China are summarized as a further research. It can be concluded that the main factor influencing the growth of motorized vehicles is GDP per capita or the average family income,and as the GDP per capita（ or the average family income） increases,the growth of motorized vehicle ownership per thousand population increases in a manner as an＂S＂curve. Based on this result,the motorized vehicle ownership within central Chongqing can be predicted by using the method of ＂S＂curve. Finally,the related policy is put forward.
出处
《重庆交通大学学报（社会科学版）》
2016年第2期33-37,共5页
Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Social Sciences Edition
关键词
社会经济因素
城市交通
机动车
预测
socioeconomic factors
urban traffic
motorized vehicle
forecast
