摘要
营改增的目的是通过促进企业间贸易来深化产业分工,从而推动服务业发展,本文利用福建省20521家制造业企业与7389家服务业企业的增值税开票数据,分别研究了该政策对企业间贸易的影响。利用倍差法估计的结果表明,营改增试点地区的试点企业与上、下游企业的贸易额在营改增之后均出现显著高于非试点地区的增长,而且这一增长主要通过贸促效应而非涨价效应或增开效应实现。同时,本文还考察了在营改增试点过程中出现的综合效应、净效应和贸易转移现象,发现福建省内企业间贸易的三类效应均为显著正值,但企业间贸易在存在转出效应的同时仍呈现显著增长;相反地,其他地区要么无显著效应,要么因贸易转入而呈现虚假的贸促效应。最后,本文利用福建省内贸易数据分析了产业差异,发现上述贸易转移效应的地区差异可能源自地区间产业差异。
VAT expansion reform aims to accelerate service industries growth through increasing inter-enter-prises trade and deepening industrial specialization. This paper studies the effects of this reform on inter-enterprises trade by analyzing VAT invoice data of 20521 manufacturing firms and 7389 services firms in Fujian Province. The results of DID estimate shows that the trade between pilot sectors in pilot regions with both upstream firms and downstream firms increases significantly. Moreover, this is mainly deriving from trade acceleration effect rather than price inflation effect or invoice increase effect. Furthermore, we also investigate regional aggregate effect, net effect and trade diversion effect. The results suggest that three effects are all significant in intra-provincial trade of Fujian Province. On the contrary, however, inter-provincial trade is rarely significant.Finally, we discuss the differential effects of VAT reform on different pilot sectors, and find that regional difference of trade diversion effect possibly results from regional difference of industrial structure.
出处
《财政研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期52-64,共13页
Public Finance Research
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573218)
教育部人文社会科学一般项目(13YJA790061)的资助
关键词
营改增
企业间贸易
试点
贸易转移效应
VAT Expansion Reform
Inter-enterprises Trade
Pilot Program
Trade Diversion Effect
