摘要
为了给绿色出行相关管理政策的制定提供理论依据,在阐述绿色出行定义及其出行方式界定的基础上,结合2009年济南市居民出行调查数据分析绿色出行特征,构建绿色出行方式选择ML(Multinominal Logit)模型,探讨影响居民选择绿色出行方式的主要因素,揭示出行者属性特征与绿色出行方式选择之间的关系,定量分析绿色出行方式在各影响因素条件下的选择概率。研究结果表明:绿色出行方式选择行为受居民年龄、家庭月收入及职业、出行时间、出行费用等因素影响;班车在远距离的通勤出行中占有一定的优势,应积极发展单位班车等形式的集约型绿色交通方式;针对出行时间和出行费用采取相应的城市交通管理措施,可以有效引导绿色出行。
In order to provide a theoretical basis for formulating green travel management policies,based on describing the definition of green travel and its travel mode,the characteristics of green travelwere analyzed combined with the resident travel survey data of Jinan in 2009. The Multinominal LogitModel of green travel mode choice was established. The factors that influenced the residents′ choicesof green travel modes were discussed. The relationship between travelers′ features and their choices ofgreen travel modes were revealed. The choice probabilities of green travel modes in the conditions ofvarious factors were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that resident′s age,family monthly in-come and occupation,travel time,travel cost and other factors have significant impact on whether ornot to choose green travel. Shuttle bus holds some advantages in long distance commuting,and this in-tensive green travel mode should be actively developed. In addition,corresponding urban traffic man-agement measures taken in the light of the travel time and travel cost,can effectively guide the greentravel.
出处
《交通运输研究》
2016年第1期45-50,共6页
Transport Research
关键词
绿色交通
出行方式
出行特征
ML模型
选择行为
green transport
travel mode
travel characteristic
Multinominal Logit Model
choice behavior
