摘要
工业是碳排放的主要部门,科学识别工业CO_2排放的行业间传导并揭示其联动结构对于跨行业协同减排具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于1991-2012年中国工业36个两位数行业数据,在VAR模型框架下,利用Granger因果检验方法对CO_2排放的行业间传导关系进行了识别,并从关系视角出发,借助社会网络分析方法(SNA)揭示工业CO_2排放行业间传导的整体和个体网络结构特征,研究发现:工业CO_2排放的行业间传导呈网络结构形态,网络密度在1-6期的滞后阶数下呈先升高后下降的趋势,并且在滞后2期达到最高;燃气生产和供应业、电力热力生产和供应业、服装业、造纸及纸制品业、木材加工业具有较高的度数中心度、中介中心度、接近中心度,在网络中处于核心位置,并发挥中介和桥梁作用;在CO_2排放的行业传导网络中,煤炭采选业、黑色金属矿采选业、有色金属矿采选业等10个行业属于经纪人板块,医药制造业、饮料制造业、化学纤维制造业等9个行业属于净受益板块,金属制品业、塑料制品业、农副食品加工业等11个行业属于双向溢出板块,烟草加工业、石油加工及炼焦业、燃气生产和供应业等6个行业属于净溢出板块。基于上述结论,本文提出了工业CO_2排放的跨行业协同减排思路。
Industry is the main sector of carbon dioxide emissions; scientific recognition the conduction of the industrial carbon dioxide emissions and its linkage structure is of important theoretical and practical significance among different industries to the construct of cross sectoral mechanism of collaborative reduction. Based on the data of 36 double-digit industries of China from 1991 to 2012,under the VAR model,this paper uses the method of Granger causality test to identify the conduction relations among different industries of carbon dioxide emissions,and used social network analysis（ SNA） to reveal the overall and individual network structure characteristics of the conduction among different industries of the industrial carbon dioxide emissions. The results show： Inter-industrial conduction of China＇s industrial carbon dioxide emission shows network structure characteristic. Network density in lag 1- 6 rise firstly,and then fall,peaking in lag 2. Gas production and supply industry,Electric power and heat power production and supply industry,Paper manufacture industry,Wood processing manufacture industry and other industries have high degree,betweenness centrality and closeness centrality,which illustrates that these industries are in the center of the network and play an intermediary and bridge role. In the industrial conduction network of carbon dioxide emissions,mining coal industry,ferrous metal ores mining and processing industry,non-Ferrous metal ores mining and processing industry and other ten industries constitutes broker block; medicines manufacture industry,beverages manufacture industry,chemical fibers manufacture industry and other nine industries constitutes net beneficial block; metal products manufacture industry,plastics manufacture,food from agricultural products and food processing industry and other 11 industries constitutes two-way spillover block; petroleum,poking,production processing industry and gas supply industry and the other 11 industries constitutes net spillover block. Fina
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期90-99,共10页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"碳排放约束下我国能源效率的区域差异及节能指标分解研究"(编号:12CJL066)
关键词
工业CO2排放
行业间传导
GRANGER因果检验
SNA
协同减排
industrial carbon dioxide emission
inter-industrial conduction
granger causality test
social network analysis
collaborative emission reduction
