摘要
气候变暖促使连接欧亚的北极东北航线(Northeast Passage,NEP)逐渐开通,由于集装箱海运为西欧与东亚间的海运贸易的主要部分,故以集装箱船运输为例分析NEP的经济性.对NEP经济性的相关研究文献进行梳理,对其存在问题进行分析.依据NEP和苏伊士运河航线特征,确定经济性分析模型的各参数,模拟集装箱船在这两条航线的必要运费率和利润,并对其进行比较分析.对运价变动引起的利润变化进行损益分析,对燃油价格、NSR通行费率和舱位利用率的变化进行灵敏度分析.虽然NEP在必要运费率上高于苏伊士运河航线,但在考虑收入因素之后,NEP集装箱运输可获得更多的利润.研究成果可丰富北极的相关理论研究,为我国北极航线海运相关决策提供理论依据.
Northeast Passage（ NEP） has been gradually opened by the warming climate. Because container shipping accounts for the main part of the maritime trade between Western Europe and East Asia,container shipping is taken as an example to analyze the economy of NEP. The research literatures related to the economy of NEP are reviewed and their existing problems are analyzed. According to the characteristics of NEP and Suez Canal shipping line,the parameters of the economic analysis model are determined,the required freight rate and the profit of the two routes are simulated,and then the comparative analysis is taken. The profit and loss analysis on profit change caused by freight change is taken; the sensitivity analysis on the variation of fuel price,NSR tariff,load factor is taken. Though the required freight rate of NEP is higher than that of Suez Canal shipping line,the NEP container transport can obtain moreprofits when taking income factor into consideration. The conclusions of the research can enrich the theoretical research related to the Arctic,and provide theoretical basis for decisions of China＇s Arctic shipping strategy.
出处
《上海海事大学学报》
北大核心
2016年第1期13-18,31,共7页
Journal of Shanghai Maritime University
基金
国家自然科学基金(61473053)
国家社会科学基金(13&ZD170)
辽宁省社会科学规划基金(L15BJY041)
