摘要
目的预测甘肃省麻风病未来的患病率趋势。方法利用2012—2014年统计整理的甘肃省麻风病患病率历史数据,建立灰色模型GM(1,1)预测未来的患病率。结果根据2005—2014年的数据可以得出GM(1,1)的检验结果为c=0.292 1和P=1,所建立GM(1,1)属于一级,预测到2015—2017年甘肃省麻风病患病率为0.004 6/万、0.004 2/万和0.003 9/万;在2015—2017年预测结果的基础上重新建立GM(1,1)模型,检验结果为c=0.090 1和P=1,所建立GM(1,1)也属于一级,预测到2018—2021年甘肃省麻风病患病率为0.003 4/万、0.003 1/万、0.002 9/万和0.002 6/万。结论灰色模型可有效地短期预测麻风病的患病率。
Objective To forecast leprosy prevalence in Gansu Province. Methods Historical data of leprosy morbidity in Gansu Province from 2012 to 2014 were taken to establish grey model GM（1,1） to predict the prevalence. Results Based on the data from 2005 to 2014, we got the GM（1,1） with c=0.292 1 and P=1, belonging to class I. The forecasting data of leprosy prevalence were 0.46/million, 0.42/million and 0.39/million in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Based on the forecasting data from 2015 to 2017, we got the new GM（1,1） with c=0.090 1 and P=1 in class I, and the forecasting results were 0.34/million,0.31/million, 0.29/million and 0.26/million for 2018 to 2021. Conclusions Grey model is an effective method for predicting the leprosy morbidity in Gansu province.
出处
《疾病预防控制通报》
2016年第1期4-6,21,共4页
Bulletin of Disease Control & Prevention(China)
基金
2013年甘肃省卫生行业科研计划管理项目(GW GL2013-60)
