摘要
以企业层面就业创造、损失和再配置为核心的就业动态是分析中国经济增长路径和宏观就业变化的一个微观基础。本文使用中国1998—2008年工业企业数据计量分析了中国制造业就业动态的特征及其背后的逻辑。研究发现:中国制造业就业再配置率为27.2%,新成立企业就业创造率为5.1%,消亡企业的就业损失率为2.3%,就业创造比就业损失有更快的市场反应,显示了就业动态的良性特征;制造业不同行业之间的就业再配置率为23.6%,就业动态70%以上属于行业内的就业再配置。通过双向固定效应模型并克服薄面板数据截面相依性的问题,本文强调了就业动态的影响机制,出口对就业创造的贡献最大,并且主要影响行业之间的就业动态;企业平均规模越小的行业,就业创造、损失及再配置的变动更大;劳动生产率虽然对短期的就业创造有负向影响,但长期看提高了产出,增加了新的就业岗位需求。就业动态的特征及影响因素显示经济增长及运行的变化对企业就业需求的影响得到了快速体现,劳动力市场机制的政策调整必须考虑企业异质性。
With enterprises＇ job creation, destruction and reallocation at its core, job dynamics is a micro- basis of analyzing China＇s economic growth and macro-employment change. This paper, using China industrial enterprises database from 1998 to 2008, estimates the features and the logic behind the dynamic change of employment in China＇s manufacturing industry. Conclusions are as follows. Firstly, from 1998 to 2008, average job reallocation rate, job creation of new establishing firm and job destruction of disappearing firm are 27.2%, 5.1% and 2.3% respectively. Market reaction of job creation is faster than job destruction, which implies a benign characteristic of job dynamics. Job reallocation across sector within industry accounts for 23.6%, above 70 percent are intra-sector job reallocation within industry. Secondly, through using two-way fixed effect model and overcoming cross section dependents, this paper estimates factors of job dynamics. Export contributes most to job creation and mainly affect inter-sector job reallocation. The smaller the size of the enterprise, the higher its change of job creation, job destruction and job reallocation. Moreover, though labor productivity has negative impact to job creation in a short term, it increases output and new job demand in the long term. Therefore, features and factors of job dynamic in China industry show industry enterprises＇ job demand make rapid reaction to economic growth and adjustment. Policy adjustment on labor market dynamic mechanism should take enterprise heterogeneity into consideration.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期83-97,共15页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目"户籍制度改革的成本与收益"(批准号14BJY034)
国家社会科学基金青年项目"非正规劳动力市场中最低工资的实施效果研究"(批准号13CYJ017)
国家自然科学基金面上项目"企业动态视角下中国内需变动影响出口增长的机制及政策应对研究"(批准号71573271)
关键词
就业再配置
就业动态性
企业异质性
中国制造业
job reallocation
job dynamics
firm heterogeneity
China＇s manufacturing industry
