摘要
跨国运输走廊的建设与开通为边疆经济发展注入了新的活力,是民族经济外向拓展的桥梁。研究构建了跨国运输走廊的边疆外贸效应引力模型,并以昆曼公路为例,利用2006-2014年云南省与主要贸易国的进出口贸易额面板数据对模型进行了实证分析。结果表明:昆曼公路的建设与开通,对云南省对外贸易的发展有积极的促进作用,且其贸易促进效应呈增长的趋势。在此基础上进行贸易潜力分析,得出云南省与缅甸的实际贸易水平明显高于预测值,双方贸易联系紧密,属于"贸易过度型";云南与老挝和马来西亚间的贸易由"贸易不足"向"贸易合理"过渡;而云南与新加坡和泰国则属于"贸易不足型",双边贸易增长空间巨大。因此,应进一步完善道路软、硬件设施和服务,以充分发挥跨国运输走廊对边疆地区外贸的带动效应。
The construction and opening up of the Cross-border transport corridor has injected fresh energy into the economic development of frontier areas, which is a outward expansion bridge of the national economic. This paper constructs the external trade gravity model of Cross-border transportation corridor. With tbe example of Kunming- Bangkok expressway, an empirical analysis of the model is carried out by using the panel data of the external trade of Yunnan province from 2006 to 2014. The findings show that the Kunming-Bangkok highway plays a positive role in the development of the external trade of Yunnan Province, and its trade promoting effect tends to increase. Based on these findings, the trade potential analysis is conducted. The results show that the actual trade level is significantly higher than the forecast value between Yunnan Province and Myannmr; that is to say the bilateral trade relations is close, and it belongs to ＂trade overage type. ＂ The results also show that the external trade between Yunnan Province and Laos and Malaysia is changed from ＂trade shortage＂ to ＂trade reasonable. ＂ While the external trade between Yunnan and Singapore and Thailand belongs to ＂trade shortage＂, the growth space of bilateral trade is huge. There- fore, we should further improve the soft and hardware facilities and services of the road, in order to make full use of cross-border transport corridors＇driving effects on external trade in frontier areas.
出处
《昆明理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
2016年第1期72-77,共6页
Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"国际陆港演化机理及仿真研究"(71463035)
关键词
跨国运输走廊
边疆贸易
引力模型
昆曼公路
效应
cross-border transport corridor
frontier external trade effect
gravity model
Kunming-Bang-kok Road
effect
