摘要
利用MATLAB软件估计参数,比较了三种生长模型对2013.01—2015.01共9个季度微信活跃用户数变化拟合效果,预测了用户数的变化趋势。研究表明,虽三种生长模型对微信活跃用户数增长轨迹拟合性总体较好,但在不同时间段误差和预测情况存在差异:Logistic模型前期误差最小,但后期较为逊色,预测偏于保守;Weibull模型则反之;Gompertz模型情况始终居中。模型比较研究,为推动"互联网+"时代商业生态系统管理策略转型提供了数理依据。
Using MATLAB to evaluate parameters and based on the active users data from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of2015,it compares the goodness of fitting among the three growth models and predict the future trend of Wechat acceptance amount. The study results show all three growth models indicate good fitness to the active user data in general,but the differences in fitting and prediction exist in different periods,revealing that logistic model is closest to the actual value in the early stage,but deviates later relatively; Weibull model is exactly the reverse; Gompertz model is between the other two models and stable in fitting prediction. The study compares the growth models to provide the mathematical basis for the management strategy transformation to business ecosystem in the age of ＂Internet Plus＂.
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期113-119,共7页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
关键词
生长模型
微信
创新采纳趋势
Growth model
We Chat
Innovation acceptance trend
