摘要
通过对居民收入增长率及收入消费比的数据分析,认为居民消费不存在成为经济增长引擎的可能性。利用居民最终消费率和GDP数据,实证分析了消费与经济增长之间的关系。通过协整分析发现,居民最终消费率的提高与GDP增量之间不存在协整关系。基于Granger检验,发现二者之间的因果关系也不显著。实证结果表明,提高居民消费率不能加速经济增长,即居民消费不能成为拉动经济增长的引擎。
By analyzing the data of the income growth rate and consumption income ratio,it concludes that it is impossible that the consumption becomes the engine of economic growth. By analyzing the relationship between residents ＇final consumption and economic growth,it finds that there is no co-integration relationship between the final consumption rate and GDP growth. Through the Granger test,the causal relationship between the two variables is not significant. The empirical result shows that the increasing of consumption can＇t accelerate economic growth. And the residents ＇consumption can ＇t become the engine of economic growth.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期99-103,共5页
Urban Problems
关键词
居民消费
经济增长
引擎
协整
GRANGER检验
residents ＇ consumption
economic growth
engine
co-integration analysis
Granger test
