摘要
风险评估是管道完整性管理的基础和核心技术,而风险可接受判据是风险评估中必须解决的关键技术问题。按照风险的最低合理可行(ALARP)原则,结合中国油气管道实际,基于历史事故数据统计分析,提出了中国油气管道风险可接受准则。推荐个体风险可接受的临界值为10-6,可容忍的临界值为10-4;给出了社会风险可接受判据的F-N曲线模型,即死亡人数(N)和超越概率(F)关系曲线。建议加强油气管道失效信息数据库建设,做好历史失效事故数据的积累和统计,对管道风险评估具有重要意义。
Risk assessment is the basis and core technology for pipeline integrity management, and the risk acceptance criteria is the critical technical issue in risk assessment. According to the principle of ＂As Low As Reasonably Practicable （ALARP）＂, the risk acceptance criteria for oil and gas pipelines in China were proposed through statistic analysis on the historical accident data. The acceptable critical value and tolerable critical value of individual risk were recommended to be 10-6 and 10-4 respectively. The FN curve model for social risk acceptance criteria （i.e., the relation function between the death number N and the exceeding probability F） was provided. It is suggested to strengthen the establishment of pipeline failure database, since the collection and statistical analysis of historical failure accidents data are significant for pipeline risk assessment. （4 Figures, 4 Tables, 10 References）
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
2016年第1期1-6,共6页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题"天然气管道风险定量评估技术研究"
2008BAB30B03
关键词
油气管道
风险评估
风险可接受判据
个体风险
社会风险
oil and gas pipeline, risk assessment, risk acceptance criteria, individual risk, social risk
