摘要
本文根据中国287个地级及以上城市的数据,运用MIMIC模型(多指标多原因模型)构建了集聚综合指数,并用广义倾向评分法(GPS)实证分析了不同集聚水平对三种污染物的影响。研究发现集聚对三种污染物的影响存在差异且存在临界点:集聚对二氧化硫的影响作用呈倒"U"型,集聚对工业废水、工业粉尘的作用呈现"S"型。集聚水平小于0.2时,集聚促进了二氧化硫的排放;集聚水平超过0.34后,集聚对二氧化硫的排放产生抑制作用。集聚水平小于0.18时,集聚抑制了工业废水和工业粉尘的排放;集聚水平超过0.18后,集聚明显促进了工业废水和工业粉尘的排放。
Based on the data of 287 cities in China, a comprehensive index reflecting the level of city agglomer- ation was built with MIMIC model and the influence of agglomeration on three kinds of pollutants in difference levels was analyzed using the method of generalized propensity score （ GPS ）. It is concluded that different agglomeration levels played different roles in the three pollutants and some transition points existed. The causal effect of agglomeration on SO2 presented an inverted ＂U＂ shape, while the effect on industrial waste water and industrial dust presented a ＂S＂ shape. When the agglomeration level is less than 0. 2, it promoted SO2 emission ; When agglomeration level is bigger than 0.34, it inhibited SO2 emission. When agglomeration level is less than 0. 18, it inhibited both industrial waste water and industrial dust emissions, After agglomeration level reached 0.18, agglomeration significantly promoted the two emissions.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第12期32-45,共14页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(14BJL084)
北京大学林肯研究中心优秀博士学位论文项目(DS20150901)
中国社会科学院生态文明智库资助(DS20150901)资助
关键词
集聚
污染
城镇化
Agglomeration, Pollution, Urbanization
