摘要
为促进疏散警报快速传播,提高区域疏散效率,应构建区域疏散警报的传播模型。从警报通知和传播扩散2个方面分析疏散警报的传播过程,将其分为疏散警报的发布、接收、理解、评估、行动、响应等6个阶段。从信息源、传播渠道、传播者、接收者等4个典型主体角度,研究区域疏散警报的传播模式。基于多主体理论,建立多警报来源的区域疏散警报传播模型。提出信息耗损定理、融合定理和阈值定理,用于描述警报在人员个体之间的传播规则。将模型应用于某气田周边区域。用多主体软件Repast Simphony得到的模拟结果表明,用此模型能得出随时间变化的警报传播效率数值,模型的可行性被验证。
It was held by the authors that for the purpose of promoting the diffusion of evacuation warning and improving the efficiency of regional evacuation,a model should be built for evacuation warning diffusion. From the perspectives of notification and spreading,the diffusion process of evacuation warning was divided into six stages,including issuing,receipt,understanding,evaluation,action and response of evacuation warning. From aspects of the four typical agents,including information source,communication channel,communicator and the recipient,the diffusion mode of regional evacuation warning was studied. A model was built for diffusion of region evacuation warnings from many sources by using the multi-agent theory Propagation rules of warning between individuals were described by means of theorems developed by the authors,such as information loss,information fusion and threshold theorems. At last,the model was applied to surrounding areas of a gas field. Simulation results on the multi-agent software Repast Simphony show that the model can be used for predicting diffusion efficiency of warning changing over the time,which verifies the validity of model.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第11期22-27,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(71173198)
关键词
多主体
复杂网络
区域疏散
警报传播
传播效率
multi-agent
complex network
regional evacuation
diffusion of warning
diffusion efficiency
