摘要
根据国家养老保险政策给出了养老金收入和支出计算模型,在存在缺口且采用延迟退休策略的情况下,建立了延迟时间计算模型.利用渐次阻滞增长分段作Logistic回归,并通过Matlab编程,得到了2015-2053年中国城镇在岗职工人均工资的预测值.以2007年1月已满22岁参保的新人为例,计算出在不同退休年龄、不同利率情况下的缺口值及退休和延迟退休时间.依据计算结果,给出了过渡期政府补贴、按年龄渐次放开二胎生育和个人帐户资金购买低风险理财产品的填补缺口对策.
According to the national endowment insurance policy, the author gives mathematical models to calculate pension income and expenditure. Facing the problem of ever increasing pension gap between the income and the expenditure, a model to calculate retirement age delay is created. The author applies the piecewise Logistic Regression and Matlab programming to calculate the predicted values of urban employees＇ average salary in China from 2015 to 2053. Taking a 22-year-old people who started insurance from January 2007 as an example, the author uses models and works out the pension gap, retirement time and retirement age delay on the basis of different retirement age and interest rate. Based on the calculation results, some suggestions are put forward to fill the pension gap by government subsidies during transitional period. The author also offers some useful advice on gradually lifting the ban of having a second child and individual account buying low-risk financial products.
出处
《深圳职业技术学院学报》
CAS
2016年第1期54-59,共6页
Journal of Shenzhen Polytechnic
关键词
养老保险
缺口
延迟退休
阻滞增长
模型
endowment insurance
gap
retirement age delay
growth retardation
model
