摘要
进入9月份,生猪价格开始呈现下跌态势。从中旬开始,生猪供应量开始不断增加,屠宰企业压价意向越来越明显并且形成规模,生猪出栏价下跌加快。尤其是进入下旬,中秋之前的那段时间,由于屠宰企业压价力度加大,养殖户出现集中出栏和恐慌抛售的行为。"十一"黄金周结束,节日期间终端需求不及预期,提振力度不大,猪价保持震荡下跌的态势。9月份开始供应量的明显增加造成供需失衡,阶段性供过于求的现象出现,猪价持续走低。这实际是对整体行情走势过高的一个调整。后期猪价上涨趋势和上涨逻辑并未发生根本变化。猪价或即将开始今年的第三波上涨态势,年底猪价有望达到17.5元/kg以上。总体上,本轮生猪价格上涨的核心动力——需求相对企稳背景下的生猪供给趋势性短缺,并未发生根本变化。养殖户不能过于跟风,还是应该保持正常的适度出栏量。
After entering September,the price of live pig declined. From mid September,the supply of live pig was increasing. Slaughter enterprises＇ intention of forcing price down was more and more evident and forming scale. The decline of live pig price accelerated. Especially from late September to Mid- Autumn Festival,because slaughter enterprises strengthened the force to get price down,farmers centralized to slaughter and undersold in panic. After the National Day Golden Week ended,the demand during the festival was less than the expectation. The force to increase was not so strong. The live pig price kept falling. The significant increase of supply which started from September caused imbalance between supply and demand. The supply exceeded the demand in stages. The price of live pig continuously decreased. This was actually an adjustment to the overall market trend which was too high. The later trend of growth of pig price and the logic of growth did not fundamentally change. The pig price may start to grow for the third time in this year. In the end of the year,the pig price was expected to reach more than 17. 5 yuan / kg. As a whole,this turn the core power of live pig price growth was the trend shortage of live pig supply under the background of relatively stabilized demand. And it did not fundamentally change. Farmers could not follow the trend too excessively. And they were supposed to keep normal and moderate slaughter quantity.
出处
《肉类工业》
2015年第12期1-4,共4页
Meat Industry
关键词
生猪价格
震荡
盈亏平衡点
高盈利
阶段性
the price of live pig
shock
break-even point
high profit
stage
