摘要
针对工程研发过程中所包含的Knight不确定性可能会造成投资上的损失,提出了工程研发投资决策模型。该模型以两个竞争性工程研发团队为例,量化了Knight不确定性对投资的影响,分析了团队自身和竞争者的投资决策,利用实物期权理论,对工程研发的决策收益进行评估,最后经过期权博弈得到了工程研发投资的最优决策。该模型考虑了竞争者的存在,可以精确地对工程研发的4种投资决策估值,由期权博弈分析得到的结果可知:实物期权的方法比传统的净现值方法的评估准确度有较大的提高,与不考虑不明确性偏好相比,工程研发在Knight不确定性下会有不同的最优投资决策,并且所得结果与实际投资决策经验更加相符,增强了投资决策制定的科学性,也保证了工程研发团队的竞争优势和收益最大化。
Aiming at the problem that in the process of engineering RD Knight uncertainty could cause loss in investment,an engineering RD investment decision model was proposed.This model took two competitive engineering RD teams as the examples to quantify the Knight uncertainty,and analyze the investment decisions of the teams and their competitors.According to the real share option theory,the investment decision payoffs of the engineering RD can be assessed.Through option game analysis,the optimal decisions are obtained under competitive conditions.The model can accurately evaluate four kinds of investment decisions;and the results show that real share option method is more improved than net present value method in the assessment of engineering RD;there will be corresponding different optimal investment decisions under Knight uncertainty.The results also accord with the practical experience,ensuring the competitive advantage and profit maximization for engineering RD teams.
出处
《西安交通大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第1期151-156,共6页
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70871030)
秦皇岛市科学技术研究与发展计划资助项目(201402B041)
