摘要
选取山东菏泽市1981—2010年的牡丹始花期资料和气象资料,应用气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall突变法等统计分析法探讨了牡丹始花期与气象条件的关系,利用ForcTT模型模拟了牡丹的始花期。结果表明:1随着气候变暖,菏泽牡丹始花期以4.4d/10a的趋势逐年提前,并在1996年发生了一次突变。1981—1996年牡丹始花期主要集中在4月下旬,处于偏晚时期,1997—2010年始花期主要集中在4月中旬,有所提前。2牡丹花期发生的早晚主要受牡丹开花前1个月(3月)平均气温的影响,而且牡丹始花期和3月份平均气温的突变节点一致,其次是2月平均气温的影响,3月仅日照时数对牡丹花期有一定的影响,降水对牡丹花期无明显影响。3采用ForcTT模型预测牡丹的开花期时,最佳的开始日期为2月1日,最佳的基础温度为1℃时,平均误差为1.29天,最小偏差为1.73天,而当开始日期为2月1日,基础温度为3℃时的平均偏差和最小偏差均在2天之内,也再次验证了2月和3月的气温对牡丹始花期的影响较大。
Based on the phenological data of peony and meteorological data in Heze,the correlation between first flowering dates of peony and meteorological condition is analyzed by using the statistical analysis methods,such as climatic trend rate and Mann-Kendall abrupt change test.The results show that：（1）The first flowering dates of peony show an advanced tendency of 4.4d/10 a,and abrupt changes occurred in 1996.The first flowering date of peony is mainly concentrated in the last ten days of April from 1981to1996,while other mainly concentrated in the middle ten days of April in from 1997 to 2010.（2）The dates of peony flowering are mainly depended on the mean temperature of March,and the mutation nodes of first peony flowering dates and March mean temperature are consistent;the influence of February mean temperature is the second,March sunshine has certain influence on the first peony flowering dates;precipitation has no obvious influence.（3）The dates of peony flowering are predicted with the ForcTT model：the optimal beginning date is 1February;the optimal basic temperature is 1 ℃;the average error is 1.29days;RMSE is 1.73 days.While the basic temperature is 3℃,average error and RMSE are within2 days,which also verifies that February and March temperature has great influence on the first flowering dates of peony.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2015年第6期1186-1191,共6页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
山东省气象局课题"鲁西南典型植物物候期对气候变化的响应"(2013sdqx11)资助
