摘要
依据国内外最新研究进展,提出了变化环境下新的内涵的水资源脆弱性与适应性管理的新概念与定义并建立了耦合环境变化对水资源影响的暴露度、水旱灾害、敏感性和抗压性的水资源脆弱性评价模型,对海河流域水资源脆弱性现状和未来气候变化影响最不利情景下的海河流域水资源脆弱性进行了定量分析研究。针对水资源脆弱性的适应性调控设置了用水总量调控、用水效率调控、水功能区达标调控、生态需水调控和综合调控五个不同方案进行分析研究。分析结果表明:从海河流域各级分区的减少水资源脆弱性目标看,单项调控最为敏感的是水功能区达标调控,其次是水资源利用效率、用水总量与生态用水控制,在所有适应性调控方案中,综合调控方案最优。
Based on the latest study advances at home and abroad,a new concept and definition of the water resources vulnerability and its adaptive management with the new connotations under the changing environment are put forward herein,and then a model for the water resources vulnerability assessment on the exposure degree,flood and drought disasters,sensibility and pressure resistance of the impacts from the coupled environment changes on the water resources is established; with which a quantitative analysis is made on the water resources vulnerability of Haihe River Basin under the most adverse scenarios of the status of the water resources vulnerability and the future climate change therein. Aiming at the adaptive regulation of the water resources vulnerability,five different regulation schemes are set up for the study and analysis,such as the total water demand,the wateruse efficiency,the up-to the standard of water-function zone,the eco-water demand and the comprehensive regulation. The analysis result shows that from the aspect of reducing the water resources vulnerability of the sub-zones on all the levels of Haihe River Basin,the single item regulation is most sensitive for the up-to standard regulation of the water-function zone,and then the water resources utilization efficiency,the total water demand and the control of the eco-water demand are next,meanwhile,the comprehensive regulation scheme is the optimal one among all the adaptive regulation schemes.
出处
《水利水电技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第6期27-33,共7页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279140)
关键词
气候变化
水资源脆弱性
适应性调控
海河流域
climate change
water resources vulnerability
adaptive regulation
Haihe River Basin
