摘要
运用江苏省1961—2014年国家基本气象观测站点网收集的气象和农业气象灾害资料以及2010年以来土壤自动站水分观测资料,根据农田水分平衡原理,以相对湿润度指数为基础,构建江苏渍涝灾害气象监测预警模型,实现了对农田渍涝灾害的客观、实时、动态监测与预报,可动态获取渍涝灾害发生的时间、范围、强度及发展态势、持续时间,为科学防范提供了手段。监测预警业务系统于2014年6月起投入业务应用,准确率约97%,特别在2014年夏季持续低温阴雨及2015年6月持续暴雨的典型渍涝灾害发生发展过程中表现突出,对全过程进行了动态监测预警,逐日提供全省渍涝灾害区域发生程度,为管理和生产部门及时掌握灾情,科学应对提供了重要依据。
In order to implement objective, real-time and dynamic monitoring and warning for waterloggingdisasters of farmland in Jiangsu Province, according to the farmland water balance principles, meteorologicaland agro- meteorological disaster information gathered by national basic meteorological observation stationsfrom 1961 to 2014, as well as soil moisture data from automatic observational stations were used to constructthe meteorological monitoring and warning model for waterlogging disasters in Jiangsu Province. Meanwhile,the model provided an effective method for scientific prevention of waterlogging disasters by dynamicallyacquiring its occurrence time, range and intensity, as well as the development trend and persistent period. Theforecasting accuracy could reach 97%, since the monitoring and early warning operational system was appliedin daily work from June 2014. Particularly, the operational system had outstanding performance in dynamicmonitoring and early warning for the development and progression of typical waterlogging disasters, such aspersistent low temperature and rain in the summer of 2014 and continuous heavy rain in June 2015, byproviding daily occurrence degrees for those areas having waterlogging disasters. Therefore, the monitoring andwarning system had provided important references for the managing and producing departments to timelymaster disaster situations and make scientific responses.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2015年第35期187-192,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目"江苏农田旱涝监测预警技术集成与应用"(CMAGJ2014M20)
江苏省科技厅科技支撑计划项目"水稻抗逆减灾高产稳产关键技术研究集成与应用"(BE2014411)
农业部公益性行业计划项目"水稻高温热害与小麦干热风缓解栽培技术集成与示范"(201203029)
关键词
渍涝灾害
监测预警
指数
waterlogging disaster
monitoring and warning
index
