摘要
本文基于引力模型,分别计算了中国与北极航线沿线区域各国的经济联系强度,发现进入21世纪以来,北极航线沿线区域国家与中国联系不断加强,总体上呈现"双中心"格局,美国是中国与北极航线沿线区域国家经济合作的核心,俄罗斯则是"次中心"。然后,在分析中国与北极航线沿线区域国家贸易是其间经济联系的主要体现基础上,进一步考察中国与北极航线沿线区域国家经济联系的贸易额与经济联系强度之间的关系。通过线性回归,验证了中国与北极航线沿线区域国家的贸易和经济联系强度的正相关关系。最后,引入北极航线,对北极航线沿线区域国家与中国的经济合作潜力进行了重新评估,发现中国与俄罗斯经济联系程度不变,美国与加拿大分别提升28%与40%,北欧五国分别提升1倍左右。中国应着重加强与美国、俄罗斯的以商品、劳务、资金、技术、信息为代表的经济合作,从而带动中国与北极航线沿线区域国家的经济合作。
Based on the gravity model and calculation of the strength of the economic ties between China and the regions along Arctic route, the paper finds that the countries in the regions along Arctic route continue to strengthen their ties with China in the 21st century. The strength of the economic ties between China and the regions along Arctic route presents a ＂double center＂ pattem, with the United States as the core of the economic cooperation between China and countries in the region along the Arctic route, and Russia as a ＂second cen- ter＂. Then, the paper analyzes that the trade between China and countries along Arctic route is the main economic link between them and on the basis of that, the paper further examines the relationship between trade and the strength of eco- nomic ties between them. Through the linear regression, the article verifies the positive correlation between trade and the intensity of economic ties between Chi- na and the countries in the regions along Arctic route. Finally, the paper re- eval- uates the potential for economic cooperation of countries in the regions along Arc- tic route with China after the introduction of Arctic route, finding that the de- gree of contact between China and the Russian economy remains unchanged and that of the United States and Canada, has increased by 28% and 40% respective- ly, and that number for the five Nordic countries has increased by about one time. China should focus on strengthening economic cooperation represented by goods, services, capital and technology in order to promote economic cooperation between China and countries in the region along the Arctic route.
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"中国北极航线战略与海洋强国建设研究"(13&ZD170)
国家自然科学基金项目"北极权益博弈复杂网络格局演变的能量地形模型仿真研究"(61174166)
新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目"海洋强国战略与海疆安全研究"(NCET-13-0701)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"北极航线战略与海洋强国建设"创新团队项目(3132014314)
关键词
北极航线
沿线区域
经济合作
经济联系强度
引力模型
Arctic route
Area along Arctic route
Economic cooperation
In-tensity of economic links
Gravity model
