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现代信用制度下政府债务的可持续性分析——兼论欧债危机的原因和美债前景 被引量:1

An Analysis of Government Debt Sustainability under Modern Credit System——the Cause of European Debt Crisis and the Prospects for USA Debt
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摘要 欧债危机后,现代信用制度下政府债务可持续性问题备受关注,尤其是对美债前景的担忧。本文通过构建一个现代信用货币制度下的政府债务可持续性分析框架发现,当一国经济增长率跟通货膨胀率与债务利息率之和的差持续小于零时,该国政府债务不可持续。爆发债务危机的欧洲五国自2001年起该指标一直小于零,且在2008年以后恶化,从而验证了该分析框架的结论。美国自1973年来该指标几乎都小于零,表明美国政府债务不可持续,不过近3年的数据使指标转负为正,为美国政府债务可持续性带来希望。 After European debt crisis,people are still concerning about the government debt sustainability under the modern credit monetary system,especially about the US debt outlook. By building an analytical framework of the government debt sustainability under the modern credit monetary system to analyze,the paper finds country' s government debt is unsustainable when the difference of a country's economic growth rate with the sum of inflation rate and the debt interest rate was less than zero. The index of five European countries has been less than zero since 2001,which verifies the conclusion of the analysis framework. Since 1973,the indicator of USA shows the U. S. government debt is unsustainable. The data of the last three years became positive,which gave some hope for the U. S. government debt sustainability.
作者 张应华
出处 《商业研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2015年第12期65-72,共8页 Commercial Research
关键词 信用货币制度 通货膨胀 政府债务风险 credit monetary system inflation government debt risks
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