摘要
基于城市经济转型内涵,应用以综合赋权为基础的模糊物元模型和核密度估计模型等评价方法,对2000~2012年中国城市经济转型成效的时空格局演变进行分析。结果表明：1 2000~2012年中国经济转型低值地区发展速度提升较快,高值地区发展有减缓趋势,但整体呈现出较好的转型态势且区域间差距逐渐缩小。2005年特别是2008年金融危机以后取得成效并不显著。2城市经济发展水平稳步提升,但空间格局变化甚微。经济规模扩张度、结构优化度、发展持续度在空间上呈现正向变化,转型成效明显;经济效益提升度却呈现出正反向回旋式变化,说明转型中政府政策的实施存在时滞效应且转型对就业产生了一定的挤出效应。3城市经济转型的时空格局演变是多种因素综合作用的结果。历史性基础因素奠定了城市经济转型的基础,提升性动力因素为其注入了活力,二者相互作用共同决定了当前经济转型现状,未来影响城市经济转型的主要因素包括内生发展能力和政策导向因素。
At present, the world is progressing toward the economic recovery of the international financial crisis,which is also a major adjustment period in the international industrial division pattern, as well as the focus of the world economy and the contrast of economic power. The overall economic growth of advanced economies remains relatively weak. At the same time, with the rapid development of the economy and urbanization process of China since the implementation of the Reform and Opening-up, the high resource environment load,along with contradictions among urban, resources, environment and economic development, has forced us to deepen economic reform and transformation. It is of great significance for the urban economic transformation process to promote regional economic growth, as well as the quality and efficiency of the economic development. This article, based on the connotation of urban economic transformation, takes the 15 deputy provincial cities of China as the research object, builds an index system which includes four dimensions, and undertakes research on the effects of urban economic transformation in China from 2000 to 2012 by means of the fuzzy matter element model based on comprehensive weight and the European approach degree comprehensive evaluation method. Then the article analyzes the temporal and spatial differences based on the results, by using the kernel density estimation model, thereby revealing the inner change rules, and determining the following conclusions： 1） The low-value areas＇ development speed accelerates, while the high-value areas show a slow trend from 2000 to 2012 in the economic transformation of China. However, the overall pattern presents a good transition state, and the regional gap is narrowing. In 2005, especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the effects of urban economic transformation have been abating. 2） At the dimension level, urban economic development maintains a steady improvement, but the spatial pattern does not change significantly. At the same tim
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第11期1388-1396,共9页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(41301129)
辽宁省创新团队项目(WT2014005)
辽宁省社科基金(L14AJL005)资助
关键词
副省级城市
城市经济
转型成效
模糊物元
Kernel密度估计
deputy provincial city
urban economy
effect of transformation
fuzzy matter-element
kernel density estimation
