摘要
工业化进程中经济增长速度呈倒U型演变的根源在于，二元转型不同阶段的结构转换效率及技术进步后发优势的不同。中国刘易斯转折阶段大致发生在2005—2020年，根据HP滤波法测算的1978～2014年中国潜在经济增长率和中国农业劳动力占比的变动情况，以及中国与发达国家经济、技术水平的差距，在参考日、韩两国二元转型中经济增长速度变化情况的基础上，我们可以得出，“十三五”期间中国潜在经济增长率应该在7％～9％之间。要把潜在经济增长率转变为现实经济增长率，从二元转型角度看，还需在推进农业转移人口市民化，促进产业与区域结构协调发展，调整收入分配结构，促进政府治理模式转变，以及深化二元经济体制改革等方面做出不懈努力．．
The source of inverted U-shaped evolution of economic growth speed in the process of industrialization is that the structure transition efficiencies and late-development advantages of technological advance in different stages of dual transition are different.China's Lewis turning point occurred approximately from 2005 to 2020.According to China's potential economic growth rate and the change of the proportion of China's agricultural labor force from1978 to 2014 measured with HP filter method and the economy and technology gap between China and developed countries,as well as referring to the change of economic growth rate in dual economy transition of Japan and South Korea,we can estimate that China's potential economic growth rate in the period of 'Thirteenth Five-Year Plan' should be 7%to 9%.In the perspective of dual transition,in order to transform potential economic growth rate into real economic growth rate,it is necessary to make unremitting efforts in the aspects such as the promotion of urbanization of transferring agricultural population,the promotion of the coordinated development of industries and regional structure,the adjustment of income distribution structure,the promotion of the transition of governmental governance mode and the deepening of system reform of dual economy.
出处
《当代经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第12期58-66,2+97,共9页
Contemporary Economic Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD146)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(11JJD810026)
辽宁省教育厅重大基础理论项目(zw2013002)
