摘要
从政治、经济、社会、文化及生态“五位一体”的区域系统出发，应用物理学随机力与种群生态学种群成长理论构建系统发展的非线性方程，得出PESCE系统演进的五个阶段；在此基础上，建立区域PESCE系统的指标体系，利用Topsis法与五边形蛛网结构对我国各个省（市、区）的协同发展能力进行测度，利用R／S分析法对2002--2011年各省（市、区）PESCE系统的序参量进行甄别。结果表明，我国各个省（市、区）2002--2011年发展基本符合模型所拟合曲线的趋势，其中北京、上海和广东三省市进人了高度协同阶段，青海、甘肃、贵州和宁夏四省尚处于初级发展阶段；各省（市、区）在近十年内发挥其自身优势，通过主导的子系统的发展带动整个区域的协同，且各省（市、区）协同发展能力排序变化不大，排序规律与各省（市、区）所处发展阶段基本相符。
Starting from the ＂Five in One＂ regional system of politics, economy, society, culture and ecology, in this essay, the author utilizes stochastic force in physics and the theory of population growth in population ecology to conclude the five stages of PESCE system＇ s evolution. Establishing the index system of regional PESCE system, Topsis and the pentagon cobweb are used to measure the collaborative development ability in every provinces. Afterwards, R/S analysis is utilized to discriminate order parameter of PESCE system of each province in 2002-2011 .As the results shown, the development of every provinces in 2002-2011 is largely in line with the tendency of curve matched by the model, among which, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong province are stepping into the highly collaborative phase, Qinghai province, Gansu province, Guizhou province and Ningxia province are still in the primary collaborative phase. During the last ten years, each province takes its advantages, boosting collaboration in the whole region through the development of dominant subsystem. With insignificant change in collaborative ability sequence of each province, compliance in rules of sequence basically conforms to development stages in each province.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第11期1-7,共7页
Economic Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD012)
国家自然科学基金项目(41371184)
