摘要
中国乡城流动人口"流而不退",传统的人口流动理论无法解释。文章在明晰农村人口退出内涵和必要性,分析农村人口退出与市民化、城市化等关系的基础上,从农村人口退出视角,加入制度因素对托达罗人口流动模型进行再修正。乡城流动人口的流动退出过程可分为两个阶段:短期内,流动人口个体流动决策的依据是预期净收入最大化;长期内,具有若干期流动经历的流动人口在进行家庭迁移退出决策时,决策依据应是包含制度净收益在内的家庭预期净收益最大化。模型分析结果显示农地制度是影响农村人口退出的核心因素,未来农村人口的顺利退出要求农村土地实现更多的功能,特别是财产功能;深入推进农村土地制度,特别是退出制度需要进一步改革完善。
The traditional migration theory has been unable to explain the phenomenon of ＂flowing without transferring＂ during the process of Chinese rural - urban population migration. Based on the Todaro model with the perspective of rural population transfer, this paper constructs a two -stage mi- gration model by introducing institutional factors into the model, while clarifying the connotation and ne- cessity of rural population transfer and analyzing the relationship between rural population transfer and citizenization and urbanization. In the short term, individual migration decision is made with the maxi- mization of expected net income~ in the long term, family migration decision is made with the maximi- zation of expected net family income including the net institutional benefits. Our model suggests that ru- ral land system is the core factor affecting rural population transfer. Successful transfer of the rural pop- ulation requires that rural land be entitled more functions, especially the property function, and further reform of rural land system, especially the transfer system.
出处
《人口研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期13-21,共9页
Population Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"中国土地制度改革与农业现代化道路研究"(项目编号12JJD790046)支持
关键词
乡城人口流动
农村人口退出
托达罗模型
土地功能
Rural- Urban Migration, Rural Population Transfer, Todaro Migration Model, Land Function
