摘要
针对牵引变电所保护系统检修时科学依据不足的问题,根据检修需求,提出了一种新的基于两参数Weibull分布的保护设备寿命预测方法。该方法在分析保护设备历史信息以及当前运行状态的基础上,充分考虑保护设备存在隐藏故障的情况,建立继电器隐藏故障阶段性恒定失效率的Markov模型以及互感器隐藏故障诊断模型,在此基础上构建牵引变电所保护系统的寿命预测数学模型。基于某区域牵引变电所的实际运行状态和结构特点,运用该寿命预测数学模型得到牵引变电所保护系统的剩余寿命曲线,表明保护系统运行于早期故障期,对比实际运行情况,验证了该方法的正确性和有效性,为牵引变电所保护设备的状态检修提供了一定的理论依据。
Aiming at the problem of insufficient scientific basis of maintenance in the traction substation protection sys- tem, according to the requirements of maintenance, a new life prediction method of protection equipment based on a two-parameter Weibull distribution is proposed. The main steps are as follows： Firstly, the historical information of relay protection equipment and the current running state are analyzed. The existence of hidden fault protection equipment is fully considered. Secondly, the Markov models of the constant failure rate of relay in hidden fault phase and transformer fault diagnosis model are established. Then the life prediction mathematical model of traction substation protection sys- tem is built. Based on the actual running conditions and the characteristics of the structure of the traction substation in certain areas, the residual life curve of traction substation protection system can be obtained with the mathematical model, which shows that the protection system malfunction is in early stage. Compared to the actual running state, the correct- ness and effectiveness of the method can be proved, which can provide a certain theoretical basis of condition-based maintenance for the traction substation electrical equipment.
出处
《高电压技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第11期3569-3575,共7页
High Voltage Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(61165006)~~
