摘要
安全注水压力是保持海上油田盖层完整性及控制溢油风险的关键指标之一。为有效降低溢油事故发生的可能性,建立FLAC3D软件和蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)相结合的(FMCS)盖层破坏概率预测模型。以SZ36-1油田某井注水过程为实例,开展FMCS模型的应用研究。运用FLAC3D软件建立储盖层模型,模拟不同注水压力下的破坏情况,确定保持盖层完整性的最大安全注水压力值。考虑注水井地层物性参数的不确定性对最大安全注水压力的影响,应用MCS预测盖层发生破坏时的注水压力概率分布范围。结果表明,保持盖层封盖完整性的最大安全注水压力值为29 MPa,敏感参数黏聚力对最大安全注水压力值有重要影响,破坏概率分布范围表明盖层发生破坏的风险较低。
Safe water injection pressure is one of the key indicators to remain offshore oil cap integrity and control oil spilling the risk. To effectively reduce the possibility of oil spill accidents in water injection process,a FMCS model based on FLAC3 Dsoftware and MCS was built for predicting cap damage probability. A case study on cap damage in a SZ36-1 oilfield injection well was carried out. Based on establishment of reservoir and cap rock model by using FLAC3 Dsoftware,maximum safety injection pressure values for keeping cap integrity were determined based on damage conditions of cap rock under different injection pressures. Meanwhile in consideration of the uncertainty of formation environment of injection wells,probability distribution of cap damage was predicted by the application of MCS. The results indicate that for ensuring the integrity of the cap,the maximum safety injection pressure value is 29 MPa,that cohesive force considered as sensitive parameters has an important influence on injection pressure,and that the failure probability distribution shows a lower risk of cap damage.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第9期109-114,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
中海油研究总院科技项目(CNOOC-KJ125ZDXM06LTD-08-ZY-12)
关键词
蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)
FMCS模型
最大安全注水压力
敏感参数分析
概率预测
Monte Carlo simulation（MCS）
FLAC3Dand MCS（FMCS） model
maximum safety injection pressure
parameter sensitivity analysis
probability prediction
