摘要
为了了解数值模式降水预报在云南地区的预报效果和误差特点,利用T639、德国和日本模式对2010—2013年云南地区雨季(5—10月)的24—72 h降水预报进行了检验和分析。结果表明:日本模式对云南地区雨季小雨和中雨具有较好的预报能力,T639模式对大雨和暴雨的预报效果明显优于德国和日本模式。T639和日本模式对6—8月降水预报的TS评分高于其他月份,而德国模式对10月中雨及以上量级降水预报的TS评分明显高于其他月份和其他两种模式。日本模式能准确预报出较强雨带的位置且降水量较接近实况,但对降水中心位置的预报偏西;T639模式能较好的预报降水中心,但预报的降水量偏大;德国模式对云南西部地区降水预报偏大,对东部地区降水预报偏小。日本模式对台风低压影响的降水预报效果较好,而德国模式对两高辐合系统影响的大雨和暴雨预报效果较好;对冷锋切变造成的中雨及以上量级降水,T639模式的24 h和48 h预报更具有参考价值。
In order to understand the precipitation forecasting performance and error characteristics of three models,namely a T639 model,a Germany model and a Japan model in Yunnan province,24-72 hours precipitation forecast during rainy season（ May to October） from 2010 to 2013 was verified and analyzed. The results showthat there is a good forecasting capability to light rain and moderate rain for the Japan model. The predicting effect of T639 model is better than that of Germany and Japan models for heavy rain and rainstorm. TS scores of the T639 and Japan models in June,July and August are higher than those in other months,while those of Germany model for moderate rain to rainstorm in October are higher than those in other months and of other models. The Japan model can correctly forecast the position of main rain belt and its predicted precipitation is close to observation,but its predicted precipitation centers are more westward. Although the T639 model could forecast centers of precipitation well,its predicted rainfall amount is greater than observation. Precipitation forecasted by the Germany model is greater than observation in the west region and less than observation in the east region of Yunnan province. The Japan model shows better performance for typhoon depression than the T639 and Germany models,while the Germany model has a better performance for heavy rain and rainstorm influenced by two high-pressure convergences. The24-hour and 48-hour T639 prediction could provide references for moderate and heavy rain caused by cold front shear.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2015年第5期39-44,共6页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
云南省预报员专项"数值预报产品和客观预报方法在云南地区预报性能的评估研究"(YB201103)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项"数值模式青藏高原及其周边地区复杂地形结构的影响检验评估与改进技术研究"(GYHY201206039)
云南省科技惠民计划"云南省人工防雹作业条件预报技术研究与应用"(2014RA002)共同资助
关键词
数值模式
降水预报
检验
TS评分
Numerical model
Precipitation forecast
Verification
TS score
