摘要
利用线性倾向估计法,分析了平果县近56a雷暴日数年代际、年际、各季和各月的气候变化特征;并用曼-肯德尔(Mann-Kendall)检验法对年雷暴日数的变化趋势进行了突变分析。结果表明:除冬季和12月的雷暴日数呈略增多的趋势外,年代、年、季、月雷暴日数总体上呈减少趋势;各季中夏季雷暴日数减少最多,秋季雷暴日数减少最缓;各月雷暴日数减少最多的是8月,其次是5月;平果县年雷暴日数在1991年发生了明显的突变现象。
The thunderstorm days interdecadal and interannual, each season and climate change characteristics of months of the pingguo nearly 56 years were analyzed by linear tendency estimate method; and mutation analysis on the variation trend of annual thunderstorm days was carried out by Mann-Kendall test. Results show that： in addition to the thunderstorm days of December and winter show a trend of slightly increasing, decadal, annual, seasonal and monthly thunderstorm days generally show a trend of decrease; The thunderstorm days in summer reduce most, while that in autumn experiences the most gradually decline; the month of the most decreasing thunderstorm days is in August, the second is in May; furthermore, annual thunderstorm days of Pingguo experienced a mutation in 1991.
出处
《气象研究与应用》
2015年第3期107-109,共3页
Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
关键词
雷暴日数
气候变化
特征分析
平果
thunderstorm days
climate change
characteristic analysis
Pingguo
