摘要
为应对地下空间建设的不确定性,首次将规模预测中引入情景分析法,主要包括6个步骤:明确决策焦点、分析现状特征及发展趋势、识别关键因素、构建发展情景、评价情景方案以及确定情景并制定调整机制,其中,结合地下空间规模预测方法的情景方案构建是核心。以中山市中心城区地下空间规划为例,在明确规划目标与重点和对现状特征与发展趋势认识的基础上,提出影响地下空间建设的关键因素主要包括经济社会发展水平、政策法规水平以及大型基础设施建设水平,结合案例分析法、功能分类法提出高、中、低三个发展情景的规模,最终通过对关键因素的趋势分析,确定中等水平的发展情景为规模预测值,并提出其他情景方案关键因素的相关参数作为检讨指标,制定近期建设规划作为滚动的调整机制。
To cope with the uncertainty of underground space construction,this paper firstly proposed scenario analysis in scale prediction,which mainly includes six steps： definition of the focus; analyzing the present situation and the future trend; identifying key factors; building possible situation schemes; evaluating probable situation; and to determine the situation and make adjustment mechanism. Where,combining other underground space scale prediction methods to raise the possible situation schemes is the core step. Making the center district of Zhongshan city as a case,this paper firstly manifests the planning purpose,as well as the present characteristic and trend of underground space construction; on the base of this,puts forwards that the level of economic and social development,policies and regulations and the large-scale infrastructure construction level are the most important factors for the construction of underground space; then combined with professional methods such as case analysis,function classification method,comes up with three situation schemes of high,medium and low levels; ultimately,through the analysis of the key factors trend,this paper determines the moderate scheme for the scale forecast,and puts forward the key factor＇s parameters for other schemes as indicators of review and builds the construction plan as scrolling adjustment mechanism.
出处
《地下空间与工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第5期1094-1103,共10页
Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering
关键词
不确定性
情景分析法
地下空间
规模预测
中山市
uncertainty
scenario analysis
underground space
scale prediction
Zhongshan city
