摘要
根据廊坊市城市特点与天然气用气规律,通过分析居民用户年用气量与民用气价、人均收入、城镇化水平、人均GDP的关系,建立城市年用气量预测模型;通过分析历年月用气量变化规律及曲线形态,得出月用气量分配计算方法;通过计算城市日用气量与星期类型、节日类型和天气情况的关系系数,建立城市日用气量预测模型。2006—2011年的年用气量预测平均相对误差为3.1%,月用气量预测的平均相对误差为5.3%,2012年1月日用气量预测的平均相对误差为4.33%。
According to the characteristics otLangfang City and the consumption law of natural gas,The prediction model for the city annual gas consump-tion is established by analyzing the relationships of an-nual gas consumption per household to domestic gasprices, income per capita, city development level andGDP per capita. The calculation method of monthly gasconsumption distribution is achieved by analyzing thevariation law and curve shape of historical monthly gasconsumption. The prediction model for the city dailygas consumption is established by calculating the rela-tion coefficient of city daily gas consumption to weektype, holiday type and weather conditions. The aver-age relative error in prediction of gas consumption from2006 to 201l is 3. 1%, the average relative error ofmonthly gas consumption is 5.3%, and the averagerelative error of daily gas consumption in January 2012is 4.33%.
出处
《煤气与热力》
2015年第10期36-42,共7页
Gas & Heat
基金
质检公益科研专项项目(201210235)
中山大学-BP液化天然气中心资助项目(99103-9390001)
广东省普通高校液化天然气与低温技术重点实验室资助项目(39000-3211101)
关键词
用气量预测
负荷预测
年用气量
月用气量
日用气量
gas consumption prediction
gasload prediction
annual gas consumption
monthly gasconsumption
daily gas consumption
