摘要
近年来,中国柴油表观消费增速明显放缓,除经济增速下滑的因素外,天然气替代快速发展和柴油隐性资源增多,也是导致表观消费量增速快速放缓的重要原因。未来中国第二产业的规模将继续扩张,但扩张速度将受到制约;商用车保有量增速将明显放缓;柴油轿车的发展前景不容乐观;其他行业柴油需求大体平稳或趋于萎缩;替代燃料快速发展导致柴油消费峰值提前到来。综合这些影响因素,中国终端柴油消费量已进入平台期,2020年前的柴油需求量在1.65亿~1.75亿吨/年。
In recent years growth in China＇s apparent diesel consumption has been slowing down rapidly. Apart from the slowdown in economic growth, the major cause is the rapid substitution of natural gas and other potential resources for diesel. China＇s secondary sector will continue to expand, but at a constrained rate; commercial vehicle ownership growth will significantly slow down; development of diesel car usage in China is not optimistic; diesel demand in other industries is generally stable or tending to atrophy; the rapid development of alternative fuels will lead to early arrival of peak diesel consumption. Given these factors, final diesel consumption has already entered a plateau; annual diesel demand will be 165 million to 175 million tons before 2020.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2015年第9期88-93,共6页
International Petroleum Economics
