摘要
2015年全国两会期间,北京市提出了新的人口调控目标,到2020年要将人口总量控制在2300万人。实现北京市新的人口调控目标,必须站在京津冀协同发展的高度,加快疏解非首都功能,以产业疏解带动人口疏解,最终实现三地产业、人口的合理布局。本文依据统计局最新的2012年北京市投入产出价值表,编制了19部门完全劳动消耗表,提出了劳动影响力、活劳动转化系数的概念,并具体给出了某一产业是如何影响其他产业就业量的计算公式。利用完全劳动消耗表所反映的各产业间的劳动消耗关系,结合各产业的具体特点,提出了直接转移、转移上游、限制需求、转移环节四条疏解办法。并进一步定量测算了产业疏解后对本部门和关联部门就业人口的影响程度,模型结果显示,批发零售业和制造业是直接转移的最重要抓手,转移北京市批发零售业10%总产值,直接就业和关联就业将分别下降19.8、4.1万人就业,最终减少23.9万就业人口;转移制造业10%总产值,直接就业和关联就业将分别下降14万、8.2万人,最终减少22.2万就业人口。
During the 2015 national NPC and CPPCC,Beijing proposed a new goals to control total population less than 23 million by2020. To realize the new target,it is necessary to strengthen Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-coordinated development and ease Beijing＇s noncapital function. We establish a labor input-output table in 19 sectors in Beijing in 2012 put forward the formula of labor influence coefficient,conversion factor of direct labor and a formula on how one industry affects employment of other industries. Based on the relationship reflected by the labor input-output table,we propose four paths of industrial transfer,direct transfer,upstream transfer,limit of final demand and process transfer. By input-output calcalation,we find that manufacturing,wholesale and retail are the key sectors to distribute population. When reduce 10% of total input of wholesale and retail,there will be 198 thousand direct employment cutting and 41 thousand indirect employment cutting. And when reduce 10% of total input of manufacturing,there will be a 140 thousand direct employment cutting and 82 thousand indirect employment cutting.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第10期111-117,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(编号:15XNH050)
关键词
京津冀协同发展
人口控制
产业疏解
投入产出
关联就业
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-coordinated development
population control
industry transfer
input-output method
related employment
