摘要
文章基于中国宏观经济、人口结构和社会福利3个维度的数据，运用系统动力学模型对全国老龄产业市场规模进行动态模拟和预测，同时结合各省、各地区的具体数据，估算分省、分地区老龄产业市场规模的变动。系统动力学仿真结果显示，2012-2020年全国老龄产业市场规模可能从2012年标准基期的1万亿元上升至3．1万亿元，年均增速在15％以上；分省预测结果呈现出明显的地区差异，经济大省与人口大省的老龄产业市场规模较大，增速较快，西北与西南地区部分省份的老龄产业市场规模较小，但未来增速快；分地区仿真结果显示，东北和西北地区的老龄产业市场规模发展压力较大，应加大扶持与引导力度。
Based on three main dimension data reflecting the levels of China's economic development,demographic structure and social welfare,this paper aims to use the System Dynamics Model to dynamically simulate and forecast China's silver-haired market scale.In addition,using the provincial data and regional data,this paper also simulates the dynamic change of the silver-haired market scale in each province and region.The simulation results imply that,using the silver-haired market demand in 2012 as the basis period,this market's demand would gradually increase from 1 000 billion RMB to 3 100 billion RMB,around annual average growth rate more than 15%.The provincial simulation results imply the significant difference in silver-haired industry market scale among provinces.The provinces with larger population and prosperous economic development usually have the faster growth rate and larger silver-haired market scale.The provinces in the west and southwest of China usually have the smaller silver industry market,but will very fast growth rate in the near future.The regional simulation results imply that the northeast and northwest of China would have more serious development pressure with the silver-haired market,therefore supporting to these regions should be enhanced.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第5期67-80,127,共14页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
北京市优秀人才培养资助项目"开发性金融创新与老龄产业系统性融资研究"(编号:021359913001)的阶段性成果
