摘要
本文基于价格解析法测算了中国房地产价格中的基础价值与投机泡沫,并对货币政策与房地产价格泡沫之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现,在市场不同状态下,房地产泡沫对实际利率的响应存在明显的非线性特征,两者之间在短期内均呈现强烈的负相关关系,但在长期,这种负相关关系趋于弱化。结论表明,只要能够将房地产市场保持在温和的运行状态,则无论是数量型工具,还是价格型工具均能发挥较大的作用。
Based on price analytical model, this paper has estimated housing bubble in China, and made empirical analysis of non-linear relationship between monetary policy and housing bubble. The main result shows that in different regimes, the response of housing bubble and actual interest rate to shocks is obvious nonlinear respectively. In the same regime, there is strong negative relationship between the response of real estate bubble and actual interest rate to shocks in short term, but it will disappear in long term. Specially, as long as the markets of real estate can work at modest speed,both the quantitative and the price tools may work well.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第10期21-31,共11页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71503032
71103029)
辽宁省教育厅项目(W2014204)
辽宁省财政科研基金项目(2014293)资助
