摘要
改革开放以来,房地产行业表现出来的周期性波动引起了国内外学者的极大关注,运用各种方法对这种周期性进行描述,探讨周期性波动的形成原因及影响因素。在我国,大约70%的房地产开发资金来自于银行信贷,银行信贷与房地产周期波动之间有着紧密的联系,而且房地产行业的发展呈现出区域性、多元化的特点。运用VAR模型实证分析山东省房地产周期与银行信贷之间的关系,结果显示,银行信贷对房地产周期波动有滞后的正向影响,因而可以运用信贷政策适当控制房地产波动;相对来说,货币供应量的扩张或收缩对平抑房地产周期波动基本无效。
Since the reform and opening up, the periodic fluctuation of real estate industry has attracted much attention of scholars both at home and abroad. The scholars use various methods to describe the periodic nature to explore the causes and influencing factors of periodic fluctuations. In our country, about 70% of the real estate development funds are from the bank credit. The bank credits and real estate cycle fluctuation are closely linked, and the development of the real estate industry presents regional and diversified characteristics. By using YAR model to make the empirical analysis of the relationship between the cycle of real estate and bank credit in Shandong province, we find that bank credit has lagged positive influence on real estate periodic fluctuation. Thus the credit policy can be used to control the real estate fluctuation, and on the other hand, the expansion or contraction of the money supply cannot help ease the periodic fluctuation of real estate.
出处
《青岛科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
2015年第3期20-28,共9页
Journal of Qingdao University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
山东省住建厅重点课题(14ZJT02)
