摘要
目的对河北省流行性腮腺炎(腮腺炎)疫情进行时间序列分析,为制定控制腮腺炎疫情策略与措施提供新的科学依据。方法利用EViews 8.0对河北省2004年1月至2014年10月建立季节自回归滑动平均混合(SARIMA)模型,使用所建模型对历史疫情进行评估,对未来疫情进行预测预警。结果最终通过检验的最优模型是SARIMA(2,1,2)(1,1,3)1 2,表达式为(1+1.28B+0.49B2)(1+0.39B1 2)d(ln(mt),1,12)=(1-1.45B-0.52B2)(1+0.36B1 2+0.92B2 4-0.37B3 6)εt;Theil不等式系数=0.07,BP≈0,VP≈0,CVP≈1,模型拟合和预测良好。实际值均落在了预测值的95%可信范围内,对未来的预测与往年的同期发病趋势一致。结论 SARIMA模型适用于河北省腮腺炎疫情的短期预测分析,可以配合常规的评价方法,即时地评价现行措施和预警未来疫情。
Objective To analyze the mumps＇epidemic by time - series analysis in Hebei province, for providing the new scientific evidence to formulate the further strategies and measures that are preventing and controlling the disease. Methods To build the SARIMA model by the measles monthly cases from January in 2004 to Oc- tober in 2014 by EViews 8. 0, then to evaluate the past epidemic, to forecast and warn the future trend. Results The selected optimal model was SARIMA （2, 1, 2） （ 1, 1, 3） 12, and the equation was （ 1 ＋1.28B＋0. 49B2） （1 ＋0.39B12） d （ln （mt）, 1, 12） = （1-1.45B-0.52B2） （1 ＋0.36B12＋ 0. 92B24 -0. 37B36） st. Theil Inequality Coefficient was 0.07, and BP≈0, VP≈0, CVP≈1, the fitting and forecasting was very well. All the actual cases were falling in the 95% confidence rang of the forecasted cases, and the forecasted case was same tendency as the past. Conclusions SARIMA model is suitable for measles short- term forecasting, working with the normal method, it can be used for evaluating the current measures and warning the future epidemic.
出处
《医学动物防制》
2015年第9期968-970,共3页
Journal of Medical Pest Control
基金
河北省卫生和计划生育委员会基金(ZL20140243)
