摘要
为定量分析气候变化情景模式下大洋河径流响应规律,利用分布式水文模型SWAT模型,基于大洋河沙里寨水文站2000-2010年水文数据以及沙里寨水文站以上集水区域各降雨站点2000-2010年降雨数据对SWAT模型进行率定和验证。基于率定后的SWAT模型,通过设定4种气候变化情景模式(假定气温℃,降水量变化),定量分析不同气候变化情景模式下大洋河径流响应规律。研究结果表明:SWAT模型在大洋河流域具有较好的适用性,模拟的径流深相对误差在10%以内,确定性系数达到0.85以上;在降水不变情况下,气温升高2℃,流域径流减少4.09%,而气温降低2℃,径流增加3.01%;在气温不变情况下,降水量减少10%,流域径流量减少5.23%;降雨量增加10%,流域径流量增加5.11%。
Quantitative analysis the impacts of different climate change scenarios on the runoff, the distributed hydrological model SWAT model was used,based on the 2000-2010 years hydrological data of Shalizai hydrological station rainfall station data over the catchment area,the SWAT model was calibrated and verified. based on the calibrated SWAT model ,four kinds of climate change by setting the profile （assuming that the temperature ℃,precipitation changes）,quantitative analysis of different climate change scenarios on the river runoff was studied.The results show that： SWAT model in the Dayang River has a better applicability, the relative error of simulated runoff was less than 10% ,and the uncertainty coefficient was above 0.85;under the same conditions of precipitation,temperature rises 2℃ ,runoff reduction of 4.09% ,while the temperature decreased 2℃ ,runoff increased 3.01% ;in the case of constant temperature,precipitation decreased by 10%, runoff reduced by 5.23%;10% increased in rainfall,runoff increased 5.11%.The results take a reference value for climate change and environmental protection of water resources in the Dayang River basin.
出处
《吉林水利》
2015年第9期45-48,56,共5页
Jilin Water Resources
