摘要
"一带一路"规划中提出要发挥广西与东盟陆海相邻的优势,构建面向东盟区域的国际贸易通道。通过选取广西2003-2013年的经济贸易数据进行协整分析、误差修正与Granger检验,分别构建广西—东盟进口、出口额对GDP贡献的计量模型。结果表明:广西对东盟的进口、出口与GDP增长之间均存在长期均衡关系,且具有正向促进作用;广西对东盟的出口对GDP的贡献比广西对东盟的进口更大。
The ＂One Belt and One Road＂ strategy proposed that Guangxi-ASEAN land-sea adjacency advantage shall be brought into play so as to build international trade passage facing ASEAN region. After making cointegration analysis, error cor- rection and Granger test based on the economic trade data of Guangxi from 2003 to 2013, this paper respectively established measurement models of Guangxi-ASEAN imports and exports＇ contribution to GDP growth. The results showed that long-run equilibrium relationship and a positive function existed between Guangxi-ASEAN imports and exports and GDP growth; Guangxi- ASEAN exports＇ contribution was larger than that of imports.
出处
《钦州学院学报》
2015年第8期42-46,共5页
Journal of Qinzhou University
关键词
一带一路
广西-东盟
协整分析
格兰杰检验
One Belt and One Road
Guangxi-ASEAN
cointegration analysis
Granger test
