摘要
文章对上合组织框架下汇率波动对中俄、中哈贸易流量的数量关系进行了实证分析。样本选取2000—2012年期间中国、俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的数据,使用静态、动态面板数据进行经验研究。研究结果显示:汇率波动对中俄、中哈的出口贸易,从整体上看"汇率波动"对出口贸易的影响并不显著;对中俄、中哈的进口贸易的影响是不确定的,且汇率的波动对贸易流量的影响非常小。经研究发现贸易结构的不合理是影响中俄、中哈贸易的主要影响因素。因此,为扩大双边的贸易提出相对应的政策和建议:优化中俄、中哈的贸易结构;在上合组织框架内建立贸易自由区,致力于扩大区域贸易的自由化;同时,积极发挥新疆的区位优势,积极建设国际大通道,把区位优势更好地转化为经济优势。
The paper gives an empirical analysis of quantitative relations about the exchange rate fluctuations on the Sino - Russian and Sino - Kazakh within the framework of the SCO. The data from China, Russia and Kazakhstan during 2000 and 2012 were selected as the sample, with which the static and dynamic panel data were researched. The results show that the fluctuation of the exchange rate does not influence the export of Sino - Russia and Sino - Kazakh very significantly on the whole. It has an uncertain impact on import of Sino - Russia and Sino - Kazakh. Meanwhile it impacts the trade flows slightly. The study shows that the main factor which influences the trade of Sino - Russia and Sino - Kazakh is the unreasonable trade structure. Therefore, the paper gives some suggestion to expand the bilateral trade, which is to optimize the trade structure of Sino - Russia and Siuo - Kazakh, to establish a free trade zone within the framework of SCO to accelerate the liberalization of regional trade, and to build an international channels to make better use of the regional advantages of Xinjiang, which can transfer the regional advantages into economic advantages better.
出处
《兰州学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第8期167-173,共7页
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(项目编号:13AZD083)
国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:13CGJ032)
新疆自治区社科基金一般项目(项目编号:14BJY031)
新疆普通高校人文社科重点研究基地项目(项目编号:050113C06)
新疆财经大学中亚研究院青年项目(项目编号:2012ZY63C05)
新疆财经大学博士科研启动基金项目(2013BS012)
关键词
汇率波动
贸易流量
静态面板数据
动态面板数据
exchange rate fluctuations
trade flows
static panel data
dynamic Panel Data
