摘要
在我国快速城镇化背景下,劳动力大规模转移造成大量老年人留守农村缺乏照顾。留守老人的健康问题成为社会关注热点。利用2013年陕西和甘肃两省农村劳动力转移项目的调查数据,建立Probit模型,采用工具变量法排除内生性偏差,估计劳动力转移对农村留守老人健康状况的影响效果。研究结果表明,劳动力转移对留守老人的健康产生负面影响,转移带来的非农收入会在一定程度弥补劳动力流失对留守老人健康的负面影响,但在现有的非农收入水平下难以完全弥补。当老年人健康状况恶化时,资金的健康边际效应提高,促使劳动力外出务工。随着我国计划生育政策效果的凸显和老龄化社会进程加速,未来我国留守老人健康问题将进一步恶化。最后在研究结论的基础上提出相关政策建议。
The massive rural labors transfer have caused a special group named ＂the left-behind elderly＂, who is lacking of care in Chinese rapidly urbanization context. The problem about the left-behind elderly healthy has caught the public focus. This paper used the survey data from north-western area rural labor transfer programme, set up the probit model and rolled out the Endogeneity Bias by IV method to estimate the influence of rural labor transfer to the left-behind elderly＇s healthy. The results indicated that the rural labor transfer made negative influence to the left-behind elderly＇s healthy. Although the non-farm income of transferred labor made a positive effect to the elderly＇s healthy, it was hardly to offset the negative effect of labors＇ lost. Once the elderly＇s healthy got worsen, the margin effect of capital was higher than that of labor. Then the degree of labor transfer would be higher, as the result, the less health elderly would be more less of care. In the future, with the effects of birth control police and aging society coming out, the rural family scale would shrink and the age structure got more old. As the result, Chinese left-behind elderly＇s healthy problem would be more severe.
出处
《农业经济与管理》
2015年第4期30-37,共8页
Agricultural Economics and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(70803005)
