摘要
云模型是一种定性概念与定量描述间不确定转换的模型,结合云模型的基本理论知识和影响油气长输管道失效的因素,提出一种基于云模型的安全评价方法,为管道安全评价提供一种新的思路。针对专家评分过程的局限性和不确定性,通过云模型规则发生器对专家评分进行处理,实现了对评分数据不确定性和随机性的传递,使评价结果更加符合客观实际,为管道的安全运行管理提供理论依据。
Cloud model is a kind of uncertain transformation model between the qualitative concept and quantitative description. Combining with the basic theory of cloud model knowledge and the factors influencing failure of oil and gas transmission pipeline,this paper puts forward a kind of safety evaluation method based on cloud model which provides a new train of thought for pipeline safety assessment. Aiming at the limitations and uncertainty of experts' grading process,experts' grading is dealt with through cloud model rules generator and the transfer of uncertainty and randomness of score data is realized. This makes the evaluation results be more in line with the objective reality thereby providing theoretical basis for the safe operation management of pipelines.
出处
《石油化工安全环保技术》
CAS
2015年第3期53-57,7-8,共5页
Petrochemical Safety and Environmental Protection Technology
关键词
云模型
定量安全评价
长输管道
油气管道
Cloud model
Quantitative safety evaluation
Long distance transmission pipeline
Oil and gas transmission pipeline
