摘要
继续扩大人民币日波幅无助于实现真正汇率灵活性。因此,调整人民币日波幅和宏观经济政策调整空间之间没有必然联系。虽然,进一步扩大人民币日波幅可能会加大人民币套息交易的投资风险,从而减缓国际资本的流入流出对中国货币政策的压力。但是,由于人民币即期汇率受到中间价等形式的管理,如果继续扩大人民币日波幅,不仅无助于显著提高人民币在较长期限内的波动率,还反而可能催生更多套利机会,而不是增大套利交易风险。因此,当前人民币日波幅尚无迫切需要进行进一步调整。汇率改革的核心应当是,形成更为透明而且市场化的人民币中间价形成机制。
Further widening of the daily trading band of USD/RMB will not help enhance the flexibility of the RMB's exchange rate.Therefore,the continued enlargement of the floating band alone will not necessarily provide more room for macroeconomic policy adjustments.Admittedly,enlarging the floating band would potentially raise the risk of carry trade on RMB-denominated assets,thus helping reduce the pressure of cross-border capital flows.However,since the RMB is still subject to the regulation of the daily central parity rate,in the longer term,widening the floating band would not help significantly raise the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate to thwart carry trade;instead,it could potentially lead to more arbitrage opportunities.Therefore,there is no urgent need for further expanding the USD/RMB floating band.The key for the reform of RMB exchange rate regime right now lies in the establishment of a more transparent and market-oriented mechanism for the setting of RMB central parity rate.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期110-120,7,共11页
International Economic Review
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403294)
中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研费青年教师创新项目(2014064)的资助
