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避免电力与天然气进入过剩时代的对策

Measures to Prevent Long-term Oversupplies of Electricity and Natural Gas
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摘要 我国的能源发展战略要优化能源结构,发展清洁低碳能源是调整能源结构的主攻方向。要用尽量多的电力、天然气去替代污染严重的煤炭与石油。由于我国现行的能源价格机制和能源政策忽视了能源产品的相对价格,造成了当前我国电力和天然气供应过剩。电力、天然气供应过剩将阻碍绿色低碳战略的实施。电力过剩相应地会阻碍风能、太阳能、水能与核能发电的开发利用。天然气过剩就会影响天然气代煤、代油的进程,如果因价格问题,"煤改气"出现逆替代,那问题就更严重了。如果能源产品相对价格不合理,电力和天然气的价格都大大高于煤炭,那么用电力和天然气去替代煤炭是很困难的。所以中国要特别重视能源产品的相对价格。要实现能源产品相对价格合理化,就要研究全球的天然气价格机制和天然气定价模式,选择适合我国国情的定价模式。同时加快国内天然气的开采,增加国产燃气的比重,并且建立亚洲能源共同体,强化与能源出口国的议价能力。必须使电力和天然气的价格低于被替代的煤炭和石油,尤其要低于煤炭的价格。这样才能避免我国出现电力与天然气过剩,防止电力和天然气替代煤炭和石油过程的停滞,尤其要防止其逆替代。 China's energy development strategy involves optimization of the country's energy mix.Developing clean low-carbon energy sources is the main direction of adjusting the energy mix.China should use as much electricity and natural gas as possible to replace highly polluting coal and petroleum.China's current energy pricing mechanism and energy policies neglect the relative prices of energy products,resulting in an oversup- ply of electricity and natural gas in the country.The oversupply of electricity and natural gas will hinder the implementation of a green low-carbon strategy.An electricity oversupply will hinder the development and uti- lization of wind power,solar energy,hydropower and nuclear power.A natural gas oversupply will affect the process of substituting natural gas for coal and oil.If due to price issues,natural gas is unable to replace coal and is instead replaced by coal,that will be a big problem.If the relative prices of energy products are irrational and both electricity and natural gas prices are significantly higher than coal prices,it would be very difficult to replace coal with electricity and natural gas.For this reason,China should pay extra attention to the relative prices of energy products.To establish rational relative prices of energy products,China must study global natural gas pricing mechanisms and modes and introduce a pricing mode that suits China's specifics.China should also quicken its pace of producing natural gas domestically,increase the share of do- mestically produced fuel gases,work to establish an Asian energy community and strengthen its ability to ne- gotiate prices with energy exporting countries.Electricity and natural gas prices must be lower than those of coal and petroleum intended to be replaced.This is particularly true to coal.Only by doing so,can China pre- vent oversupplies of electricity and natural gas and prevent the process of replacing coal and petroleum with electricity and natural gas from stagnating.In particular,a reverse replacement must be p
作者 朱成章
出处 《中外能源》 CAS 2015年第7期15-20,共6页 Sino-Global Energy
关键词 电力 天然气 煤炭 石油 清洁能源 替代 相对价格 供应过剩 能源结构 electricity natural gas coal petroleum clean energy source replacement relative price oversupply energy mix
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