摘要
利用1971—2010年天山北坡经济带棉区11个代表站的气象资料,采用气候倾向率、t-检验和IDW插值方法,分析了棉区3月下旬至4月下旬各旬平均气温和≥12℃初日的时空变化对棉花播期的影响.结果表明:研究期间,天山北坡经济带3月下旬、4月上、中、下旬平均气温分别以0.8、0.5、0.1和0.5℃·(10 a)-1的倾向率呈增加趋势,但是≥12℃初日却以-0.5 d·(10 a)-1的倾向率呈提前趋势.各气象要素均在20世纪90年代发生突变,突变年后3月下旬、4月上、中、下旬平均气温依次增加2.5、1.9、1.1和1.5℃,分别达到7.2、10.0、13.2和15.6℃.3月下旬至4月下旬各旬平均气温的高值区普遍位于天山北坡东部棉花主产区的乌苏市、沙湾县和玛纳斯县站点周围,而低值区基本在东部的乌鲁木齐市附近.≥12℃初日的空间分布具有地区差异性,研究期间,初日日序较早的区域由精河县向西扩展到棉花主产区玛纳斯县周围,而日序较晚的区域从乌鲁木齐市以南的大部区域缩小至乌鲁木齐市周围.随着突变年后≥12℃初日逐年提前,大部县市棉花适宜播期在4月22—28日,采用地膜播种可使适宜播期提前至4月15—21日.
Based on the meteorological date acquired from 11 meteorological stations in Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain during 1971-2010 and by using the methods of linear regression, t-test technique and IDW interpolation, this paper analyzed the spatial distribution of each ten-day average temperature from late March to late April and beginning date of ≥ 12 ℃ to un- derstand the effect of climate change on the cotton seeding date. Results showed that each ten-day average temperature from late March to late April increased by 0. 8, 0. 5, 0. 1 and 0. 5 ℃ ·（ 10 a）-1, but the beginning date of ≥ 12 ℃ advanced by 0.5 d ·（ 10 a）-2 during 1971 - 2010. All meteorological elements in this research ascended abruptly in the 1990s. The abrupt cli- mate change made each ten-day average temperature increasing by 2.5, 1.9, 1.1 and 1.5 ℃, to 7.2, 10.0, 13.2 and 15.6 ℃, respectively from late March to late April. The high values of each ten-day average temperature from late March to late April expanded the scope of main cotton produ- cing areas in Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain, such as Wusu, Sawan and Ma- nasi, and the low values were observed in Urmuqi. The spatial distribution of the beginning day of ≥ 12 ℃ was significant different in different regions. During this study period, the early beginning dates of ≥ 12 ℃ expanded the scope of Jinghe and Manasi as cotton producing areas, and the late beginning dates of ≥ 12 ℃ narrowed to areas around Urumqi. With the advance of the beginning day of ≥ 12 ℃, the seeding date of cotton could start from 22nd to 28th April in most of the coun-ties, and mulch cover could bring forward the suitable sowing date to 15th through 21st April.
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第7期2074-2082,共9页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31260312)
农业部公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201103001)资助
关键词
天山北坡经济带
棉花
播期
旬气温
≥12℃初日
Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain
cotton
seeding date
ten dayaverage temperature
beginning date of ≥ 12 ℃.
